WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING THIS WEEK IN THE NFL
Time once again for our weekly look at what sharps (professional wagerers) are thinking in pro football. As always, games are presented in rotation order.
OAKLAND AT PITTSBURGH: Sharps definitely liked the Raiders at the opener of +8.5. They bet the dog all the way down to +7...and nobody bought back a middle yet. The Wise Guys have been very impressed with what they've seen from the Raiders in recent weeks on both sides of the ball. And, Pittsburgh hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire lately. Nothing on the total, though we may have Under money come in if the weather is going to be an influence. Under guys are hiding in closets right now because so many games have been going Over. That can't last forever.
HOUSTON AT THE NY JETS: Early action from on the home favorite from -6.5 to -7 at the outset, with not much happening since then. That may have been position taking too on the thought that squares (the public) may load up on the Jets against the Texas team having to play up North in November. New York hasn't really been a blowout team of late...so I can't assume that was anti-Houston sentiment rather than just position-taking. The total jumped from 44.5 to 46 based on Houston's bad defense from what I was hearing. Mark Sanchez has had some good games vs. bad defenses.
BALTIMORE AT CAROLINA: Baltimore opened at -8, and jumped to -10 right away because of Carolina's recent poor play and quarterback troubles. When it was announced journeyman Brian St. Pierre would get the start, even more money came in on the Ravens (and it takes a lot for sharps to lay double digits on the road). I'm seeing -11 now. Given how poorly Miami played with a #3 quarterback against Chicago this past Monday, we may not see any buyback on St. Pierre no matter where the line ends up. The total hasn't moved from 37. In the rest of the games, I won't mention the total if it hasn't moved.
WASHINGTON AT TENNESSEE: More interest on the total than the side here, with an opener of 42 going up to 44. Both defenses looked vulnerable last week, which surprised some sharps. That may be a factor. Same situation here as in New York with an opener of -6.5 for the home favorite moving to -7. That may just be position-taking rather than true support. As bad as Washington looked this past Monday, sharps expected squares to load up against the Skins.
DETROIT AT DALLAS: Dallas opened at -7, but is down to -6. That's interesting because Dallas looked so good against the Giants. Sharps thought the market overreacted in the Dallas direction after overreacting the other way last week (sharps LOVED the Cowboys on game day). They took the full TD in what they consider to be a closer game. The total is up a point from 45.5 to 46.5.
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA: Another total jump here, as an opener of 42 is now 44. The Under guys are afraid to bet! The Over guys have extra to play with, and are looking to step in when the weather is good or the game is indoors. Green Bay opened at -2.5, and got bet to the critical number of three very quickly. Sharps are down on Brett Favre right now, and were pleased to get the Packers at less than a field goal.
BUFFALO AT CINCINNATI: Cincinnati got bet up from -4.5 to -6. There may have been early concerns about Ryan Fitzpatrick going for Buffalo. He got his hand stepped on last week in the win over Detroit. Not many other reasons to back the Bengals the way they've been playing.
CLEVELAND AT JACKSONVILLE: Sharps are buzzing about Colt McCoy of the Browns. They turned that buzz into bucks with strong support on the Browns at the opener of +3. That line has moved down to +1.5...which means Cleveland was also attracting action at +2.5 and +2. This creates a quandary for sportsbooks, because Cleveland would fall into the basic strategy teaser window (moving to +7.5) if there aren't any more changes. And, if sharps loved Cleveland at +3, they'll really love them in teasers at +7.5. The total has gone up from 42 to 44.
ARIZONA AT KANSAS CITY: A lot of totals seem to be jumping from 42 to 44 this week, which we see again here. Arizona has been awful on the road, so an opener of Kansas City -7.5 actually went up rather than toward the critical number of seven. I'm seeing KC -8.5 as I write this. That would stick the Chiefs in the teaser window (moving down to -1.5), so you may see a self-defense move to -9 from some sportsbooks over the weekend. They don't want the whole world putting Kansas City in teasers at less than a field goal at home over a horrible road team.
SEATTLE AT NEW ORLEANS: This total didn't move from 42 to 44. It moved from 42.5 to 44! Early support on the team side to underdog Seattle, as an opener of +12.5 is down to +11.5. You just never know with the Seahawks. They've been a feast or famine team for many weeks now. That means line moves of a point matter less in their games. So few are landing near the number.
ATLANTA AT ST.LOUIS: Not much interest here. Atlanta is -3, and most sharps think that's a fair line. The Falcons best games have been at home this year, which is why you're not seeing support for a team that's getting media respect. I know some sharps who are hoping the public comes in on Atlanta on game day so they can take the Rams at +3.5 or better.
TAMPA BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO: Tampa Bay has earned the respect of sharps in recent weeks, and inspired a drop from +4 to +3 in this one. Travelling cross country is a negative. But, San Francisco had to go overtime last week, which hurts the hosts chances of playing above norms. I have to say...the turnaround in sentiment this year about Tampa Bay has to be one of the biggest I've seen in years from sharps. They thought this coach and team were going to be awful coming into the season.
INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND: New England has been bet up to -4 from an opener of -3. There are sharps who hate trying to fade Peyton Manning as un underdog. But...the Colts have looked so shaky with all of their injuries that they didn't step in yet to counteract the Tom Brady money. New England looked great vs. Pittsburgh last Monday Night. This line move is basically from people impressed with the Patriots betting...and people who prefer Manning not betting because of the injury situation. The total is down from 51 to 50.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: Limited action yet...though the public may step in Sunday because the Eagles looked great last Monday Night. Squares love taking hot teams at home at a field goal...so we may see some movement soon. The fact that sharps haven't acted yet tells us they prefer the Giants, and are waiting to see if they can get something better.
DENVER AT SAN DIEGO: Big move on the Monday Night total, with an opener of 47 moving up to 50.5 so far. Sharps tend to back off of Overs once you see 50...so sentiment has cooled. Still...big money on the Over at 47, 48, and 49 obviously. Denver's played some high scoring games recently...and you have to figure the Chargers will put up some points.
